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| Fusarium-infested wheat |
Toxic cereals? Yes, this does indeed occur; fungi can produce toxins on cereals. And this risk is increasing with increasing precipitation and higher temperatures in Europe as result of climate change. Scientists of Plant Research International are investigating where and when this is to happen.
The fact that fungi are producing toxins has been known from time immemorial. The Fusarium fungus, which may be found on cereals, is one of the toxin-producing fungi.
Fusarium-infested wheat.
Food safety authorities are rejecting batches of cereals that contain too much of such toxins for human consumption. The standards for animal feed are less strict but also here threshold values apply. If these would also be exceeded, the cereal can still be used as, e.g., raw material for biofuel.
The fungus is infesting cereals during flowering or just before harvest. Whether this happens depends on temperature and humidity. Thermophylic Fusarium fungi are found in South-European countries whereas in North-European countries the fungi are striking under damp conditions.
Increasing problems with fungi
Our scientists are expecting that the problems with fungi will increase due to climate change. Not only will the fungus be able to strike more frequently but it may also show up in other regions than where this is currently the case. The fungi may also start producing new toxins that are not yet included in monitoring programmes.
This will result in higher yield losses for farmers, increased pesticides costs and lower incomes because more batches will be rejected for consumption. And inspection services will need to carry out more frequent and more specific checks.
The size of the problems is not yet known. The scientists are attempting to find out via model studies, for which they are using climate models that are indicating the bandwidth of climate changes over the next 50 years. They link these to crop growth models that are predicting how much earlier cereals will start flowering when climate changes. And they are also developing models that predict when the fungi will occur. Linking all those models yields information about when, where, and how often a fungus will strike.
This is valuable information for food safety authorities, growers and the cereal trade on which they can base their decisions. The fact that these are scenario studies means that the models are still containing many uncertainties. And this means that users will also have to make flexible use of the results.
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